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2030 Outlook: Payers and Nontraditional Providers Set to Transform the Primary Care Landscape

Bain & Company’s updated report reinforces its previous prediction that nontraditional providers will capture a significant portion of the primary care market by 2030. The report highlights the growing role of payers, retailers, and advanced primary care providers in reshaping the market, while acknowledging the challenges faced by these nontraditional players, particularly in providing comprehensive care. Competition and regulatory changes will continue to evolve the primary care landscape over the next five years. Click here for article.

  • Nontraditional providers (retailers, payers, and advanced primary care organizations) are expected to control 30% of the U.S. primary care market by 2030.

  • Payer-owned primary care is projected to capture 20% of the market, with companies like Optum and CenterWell expanding their capabilities.

  • Retailers, such as Walmart and Walgreens, are facing challenges in scaling primary care, with some exiting the market or reducing investments.

  • Advanced primary care providers focusing on value-based care and population health are positioned to scale, but must adapt to regulatory changes and financial pressures.

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